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Margin of Error
They were up late counting the votes in Brandon-Souris Monday night. That, despite the fact that the final poll of the campaign showed the Liberals with a commanding 29-point lead. In the end, the Liberal vote was 16 points lower and the Tory vote was 14 points higher. It would have been a shocking result, […]
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Charter Polling Misses Mark
For those hoping Quebecers would abandon Marois over her utterly repugnant charter, this is an encouraging headline: Quebec Liberals jump to 7% lead over PQ as backlash grows over values charter A recent boost in support for the Quebec Liberals means the party could secure a “hair thin” majority in the province if an election […]
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Byelection Results Roll In
With most of the results in, it appears the Liberals have held Scarborough-Guildwood and Ottawa South, with the NDP winning Windsor-Tecumseh and London West, and Doug Holyday squeaking it out in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. On the surface, this is a disastrous result for Kathleen Wynne, losing three seats and seeing her party’s vote fall by an average […]
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Chickening Out On Change
We’ve been reminded this week that an 8-point lead in the dying days of an election campaign is about as safe as a 2-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of a playoff hockey game. Never take anything for granted. Despite leading by between 2 to 9 points in every poll fielded over the past […]
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Let’s Not Get Ahead Of Ourselves
Lorne Bozinoff, discussing Forum’s latest poll, explains what “should be clear by now”: “It’s clear by now that the Trudeau phenomenon is no one-day wonder, and that a Liberal Party led by him would be the prohibitive favourite to beat in the next federal election,” Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said. This likely makes […]
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Quebec Votes Tonight
Today, Quebecers head to the polls, ready to elect what may be the least scary PQ government in the province’s history. That’s not a commentary on Marois, who is running on a disgustingly xenophobic platform. But even if the PQ gets a majority, it will be a majority built on only a third of the […]
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Your Guess is as Good as Mine
Three parties entered the Quebec election with a chance to win, and while the PQ appears to be stumbling to victory, it’s nearly impossible to predict what will happen on Tuesday. Of course, that’s not stopping anyone. La Presse (thanks to CROP) projects a PQ minority, while the National Post (thanks to Forum) and the […]
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Trudeau’s Poll Position
It’s no secret that Liberals love power above all else, so it’s hard for any Liberal to stay immune to Trudeaumania when you see headlines like “Justin Trudeau could lead Liberals to first place, new poll shows” or “Trudeau could be Grits’ only hope, says pollster Graves“. I’ll admit that seeing a Trudeau-led Liberal Party […]
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The Third Way
The latest Ipsos poll paints a rather dreary picture of Liberal fortunes, with what was once the natural governing party languishing more than 15 points behind both the NDP and the Conservatives. Of course, the NDP are in their post-leadership honeymoon, the Liberals don’t have a permanent leader, and a horse race poll when politics […]
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Margin of Error
I don’t think I’ve ever followed an election where the polls were as horribly off the mark as they were in Alberta. Last May, when the media jumped on the “pollsters blew it” bandwagon for not projecting a Tory majority, most companies were still within the margin of error on the final vote intent numbers. […]