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Alberta Votes Day 11: A Wild Wave Sweeps Across Alberta
Dear Wildrose Party candidates, It’s time to book a return ticket from Vegas: Wildrose pulling ahead of PCs in election campaign: poll Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll New Poll: Wildrose up by 17 points While the Wildrose lead ranges from 7 to 17 points on these polls, the trend is clear on all […]
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Alberta Votes Day 3: Time to bring back Ed?
In retrospect, maybe it wasn’t such a good idea for Alison Redford to call the election after a month of wall-to-wall scandal and controversy. Two more polls have been released today – let’s start with the bad news for Alison Redford. Leger Marketing confirms the statistical tie we saw in two polls Monday: PC 37%, […]
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Alberta Votes Day 2: Polls and Prostitutes
We were treated to a pair of Alberta election polls last night – both showing the PCs and Wildrose in a statistical tie. Given previous 2012 polls have shown Redford between 5 and 37 points ahead, this comes as a bit of a shock – though it’s not necessarily bad news for the PC campaign […]
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Alberta Poll Soup
The expectation in Alberta is that Alison Redford’s first budget will pass by March 21, with the writ dropped March 26 for an April 23 vote. As for the expected outcome, the polls are predicting…well…who knows? Five companies (ThinkHQ, Forum, ROI, Abacus, Leger) have released polls in 2012, with the following ranges for each party: […]
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The reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated
There’s a lot of excitement in Liberal land over the latest Nanos poll: CPC 35.6%Lib 28.1%NDP 27.3%Green 3.9%BQ 3.9% As much as I’d love to jump up and down and chant “suck it Peter Newman“, the reality is that this poll is essentially meaningless. We’ve just been through an exhausting few years politically and voters […]
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“The Tories are not going to win. This campaign is all but finished"
Those are the words of Ipsos’ John Wright. If Tim Hudak is worried about a Liberal-NDP coalition, there’s only one way to prevent it at this point – and it’s not by voting PC. Ipsos (Sep 30 to Oct 3; n = 1200 phone)Lib 41%PC 31%NDP 25%Green 3% Nanos (Oct 1 to 3; n = […]
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Dean Del Mastro: Champion of Democracy and Scientific Polling Methodologies
The biggest fireworks so far in the sleepy Ontario election campaign have not come between the candidates, but between the pollsters. And there’s a new pollster on the block – Dean Del Mastro: Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s parliamentary secretary has stepped heavily into the Ontario election for the second time, this time commissioning a 1,000-person […]
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On Top
Yes, we all had a good snicker at last week’s Decima poll which showed the Liberals 11 points up in Ontario. But lo and behold, a double dose of polls last night, both showing Dalton McGuinty back on top: Nanos (Sep 10-11, n = 507 phone) Lib 38%PC 35%NDP 24%Green 3% Ipsos (Sep 7-11, n […]
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Predicting the Unexpected
I’ll announce the winners from my election pool later this week. One of the questions there asked which polling company’s final poll numbers would hit closest to the mark. You can browse the numbers here. To pick a winner, I simply added up the difference between their numbers and the results, producing the following: Angus […]
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Polls, Projections, Predictions
A round-up of what might, but probably won’t, happen tonight: POLLS Leger: CPC 36%, NDP 31%, Lib 21%, BQ 7%, Green 4% Angus Reid: CPC 37%, NDP 33%, Lib 19%, BQ 6%, Green 4% Ipsos: CPC 38%, NDP 33%, Lib 18%, BQ 7%, Green 4% Nanos: CPC 37%, NDP 32%, Lib 21%, BQ 6%, Green […]