Ho ho ho! Look what Santa has brought Stephen Harper for Christmas. Why, it’s a 17.6% chance at a majority. For the first time since I started running these projections in July, a Conservative majority is a real possibility, abeit still a low probability outcome. Of course, these projections are based on where the ball […]

Yesterday, I gave an overview of the polling numbers – today, an updated seat projection. The long explanation of how I came up with these numbers is here. The short of it is the model simulates an election 10,000 times, taking the following into account: -Publicly released polling data-2004, 2006, and 2008 election results-Riding demographics-The […]

Below are my updated seat projections, I first posted in July. For the long methodology explanation, click here. To summarize it, the model projects the probability of each party winning every seat in the country, taking the following into account: -Publicly released polling data-2004, 2006, and 2008 election results-Riding demographics-The historical variance in riding results, […]

For those who recall, I experimented with a seat projection model last election. By and large, it worked as well as any of the other models out there. But the rub is, my model, like every other pundit, seat projection and octopus out there, underestimated the Conservative seat total and overestimated the Liberal one. The […]

The British election is now a week away and the Conservatives seem all but assured of victory – the real question is whether or not they’ll be able to get their majority. Sound familiar? The real twist is the rise of the Liberal Democrats, which has buggered up most seat projections. But hey, that just […]

For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections The polls have taken a turn for the worse for the Liberals, and my projections now show Harper with a 52.3% chance of a majority…and that’s mainly due to older sample that hasn’t completely decayed in weight yet. As always though, things can […]

For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections With three companies running daily tracking polls, there’s a lot more data available, which has decreased some of the variance in my projection model. I’ve also tweaked the system slightly by weighting the Ekos polls less – with the demon dialing, the’re getting […]

Since 538 rocks my world, I figured it might be fun to try something similar for the federal campaign, so I’ve developed a seat projection system that uses a probabalistic approach. Here’s the explanation, in as plain English as I could put it. Feel free to e-mail me or ask for clarification in the comments […]