-
Your Daily Seat Projections
The big update will wait until the final round of polls come in this weekend but, for now, the latest from Nanos, Ekos, and Decima have been added. CPC: 36.1% (-0.2)NDP: 27.7% (+1.1)Lib: 22.7% (-1.1)Bloc: 6.6% (-0.3)Green: 5.6% (+0.1) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling […]
-
Your Daily Seat Projections
Today’s vote numbers include the new Nanos, Ekos, Angus, and Forum polls: Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets): CPC: 36.3% (-1.5)NDP: 26.6% (+3.5)Lib: 23.8% (-1.5)Bloc: 6.9% (-0.4)Green: 5.5% (+0.4) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have […]
-
Your Daily Seat Projections
Given the number of polls we can expect this week, I’ll offer a quick seat projection update each afternoon around this time. For today: Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets): CPC: 37.8% (-0.8)Lib: 25.3% (-0.4)NDP: 23.1% (+1.1)Bloc: 7.3% (-0.3)Green: 5.5% (+0.4) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into […]
-
Poll Soup: What the NDP surge means
Trying to make sense of what the NDP’s Quebec surge means in terms of seats is a difficult game. For starters, most public polls lump all of Quebec together when, in reality, a voter in Montreal is very different from a voter in Abitibi. Just because the Liberals or Conservatives are down province-wide, it doesn’t […]
-
Poll Soup: And here comes the NDP?
Tons of polls out today, with something for everyone. If you’re a Liberal, you’re no doubt salivating at eating into the 8-point Tory lead in today’s Decima and yesterday’s Ekos polls. The NDP are surging in the latest from Leger and Angus Reid, with the latter showing them tied for second with the Liberals. The […]
-
Pre-Debate Seat Projections
Up until now, I’ve taken the approach that the polls are rather meaningless, as the electorate still isn’t tuned in to this campaign. There’s no need to curl up in a fetal position in the shower just because your favourite party is down 10 points in Atlantic Canada. But consider this the last free pass. […]
-
Updated Seat Projections
Despite some mid-week adventures by Nanos, the poll numbers stayed relatively flat in Week 1 of the campaign. In effect, outside of our daily dose of Nik, there wasn’t a lot to report on until Ekos and Leger rolled in over the weekend. (We also got new numbers from Decima today, but only after I […]
-
Pre-Christmas Seat Projections
Ho ho ho! Look what Santa has brought Stephen Harper for Christmas. Why, it’s a 17.6% chance at a majority. For the first time since I started running these projections in July, a Conservative majority is a real possibility, abeit still a low probability outcome. Of course, these projections are based on where the ball […]
-
November Seat Projections
Yesterday, I gave an overview of the polling numbers – today, an updated seat projection. The long explanation of how I came up with these numbers is here. The short of it is the model simulates an election 10,000 times, taking the following into account: -Publicly released polling data-2004, 2006, and 2008 election results-Riding demographics-The […]
-
Seat Projections
Below are my updated seat projections, I first posted in July. For the long methodology explanation, click here. To summarize it, the model projects the probability of each party winning every seat in the country, taking the following into account: -Publicly released polling data-2004, 2006, and 2008 election results-Riding demographics-The historical variance in riding results, […]