For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections The polls have taken a turn for the worse for the Liberals, and my projections now show Harper with a 52.3% chance of a majority…and that’s mainly due to older sample that hasn’t completely decayed in weight yet. As always though, things can […]

For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections With three companies running daily tracking polls, there’s a lot more data available, which has decreased some of the variance in my projection model. I’ve also tweaked the system slightly by weighting the Ekos polls less – with the demon dialing, the’re getting […]

Since 538 rocks my world, I figured it might be fun to try something similar for the federal campaign, so I’ve developed a seat projection system that uses a probabalistic approach. Here’s the explanation, in as plain English as I could put it. Feel free to e-mail me or ask for clarification in the comments […]