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Your Daily Seat Projections
My final projections will be posted tomorrow, but we’ve already got the final numbers from Leger, Ipsos, and Angus. Here’s the running average: CPC: 36.5% (+0.4)NDP: 30.4% (+2.7)Lib: 20.8% (-1.9)Bloc: 6.6% (-)Green: 4.7% (-0.9) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts […]
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Ad Watch: Compare and Contrast
The Liberals release their final two ads of the election – one targeting the Tories, one targeting the NDP. How would you rate this ad? A B C D F See Results How would you rate this poll? A B C D F See Results You can rate other campaign ads here, here, here, here, […]
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Angry Bairds
This is just too funny.
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This is sure to end well
If you think this all ends on May 2nd, think again: Harper mum on post-election governing scenario Stephen Harper is refusing to say whether he would accept a decision by the Governor General to hand power to the opposition parties in wake of the May 2 election. Conservative supporters booed a CBC journalist at a […]
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The 2011 Wet Tissue Election
Sadly, this is all people will be talking about over the final 3 days of the campaign: TORONTO – Jack Layton was found laying naked on a bed by Toronto Police at a suspected Chinatown bawdy house in 1996, a retired Toronto police officer told the Toronto Sun. The stunning revelation about the current leader […]
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Ridings to Watch – BC
After a look at Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta, we head West, to the always interesting world of BC politics. I don’t have a lot of on-the-ground intel, so check out Pundits Guide for a great qualitative look at the ridings. I’ll provide a brief overview here, using data from my seat projections but, by all […]
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Your Daily Seat Projections
The big update will wait until the final round of polls come in this weekend but, for now, the latest from Nanos, Ekos, and Decima have been added. CPC: 36.1% (-0.2)NDP: 27.7% (+1.1)Lib: 22.7% (-1.1)Bloc: 6.6% (-0.3)Green: 5.6% (+0.1) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling […]
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No Win Situation
A preview of the problems that might await the Liberals if Layton surges over 100 seats. CdnPolitico @stphnmaher Works for me. As a Blue Lib I would not agree to ever support an NDP-led govt. Ever. torontodan @stphnmaher If Libs prop up Harper, 80% of those who are left will leave the party forever. Myself […]
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Ridings to Watch – Saskatoba
Yesterday, I looked at Alberta. Today, we head east. Keep in mind, there’s not a lot of polling data from the Prairies, so this is a fairly superficial overview. Any intel those of you on the ground have is greatly appreciated! Wascana There are some certainties in life. Sun goes up, sun goes down. Tide […]
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Ridings to Watch – Alberta
Over these final 5 days of the campaign, I plan to take a look at the seats to watch in each region, with a little help from my seat projections. There’s not much in terms of new polls today, so I’ll save the updated projections for tomorrow. Luckily, you don’t need a complex simulation model […]