It’s really amazing just how big the royalty review has become in Alberta. In just four days 210,000 people have read the report online – I’d always thought those kind of hit numbers were limited to youtube or porn sites.

The report calls for an additional 2 billion dollars in royalties a year and several sliding scale rates that would depend on the price of oil – makes sense to me. Those on the right are already gearing up to scream “Stelmach’s NEP” if he brings the full report in, while those are the left will no doubt claim that Mr. Ed has sold out to big oil and shown a lack of leadership if he doesn’t implement every recommendation.

This is quickly turning into Ed Stelmach’s “pension moment” that will probably make or break his leadership. Back in 1993, the PCs were down in the polls and left for dead by most. A huge backlash over MLA pensions was brewing, but Ralph Klein went into caucus and laid down the law, telling his caucus they’d have to slash their pensions or they’d lose the next election. They came into line and Ralph’s World was created.

The situation is similar now. Implementing the full report, would let Stelmach say he’s standing up to big oil, that he’s willing to make difficult decisions, and it would cut the Alberta Liberal Party off on one of their big issues. The fringe parties on the right aren’t real threats and all Stelmach has to do is remind Albertans that it was Peter Lougheed who massively increased the royalties back in the 70s. “This oil belongs to Albertans, blah blah blah, we deserve our fair share, blah blah blah“.

I hate to give the guy advice but I’m fairly confident that Stelmach will take a wishy washy middle ground solution that leaves everyone pissed off. If he surprises, he might be able to extend the PC dynasty another decade. If not? Well, all good things…