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‘Twas the Night Before Recess
Via Susan Delacourt, comes this gem from Bonnie Crombie and Dominic LeBlanc. Twas the night before Christmas and all through the HouseNo spin could be heard, not a rant, not a grouse.The doors had been locked, no lightbulbs were burning.In the hopes that this might stop John Baird from returning.The MPs were nestled as snug […]
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Pre-Christmas Seat Projections
Ho ho ho! Look what Santa has brought Stephen Harper for Christmas. Why, it’s a 17.6% chance at a majority. For the first time since I started running these projections in July, a Conservative majority is a real possibility, abeit still a low probability outcome. Of course, these projections are based on where the ball […]
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Pre-Christmas Poll Soup
It’s hard to spin 2010 as a good year for Harper. He kicked the year off facing an unexpected fury over prorogation and declining poll numbers. He was attacked relentlessly by the opposition over G20 spending, the Census, and the $16 billion dollar fighter jet purchase. He had few accomplishments other than meeting Bonhomme Carnival […]
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This Week in Alberta: Polling Numbers
A round up of recent news stories from Alberta: 1. The Wildrose Alliance have had their first semi-public internal party dust up, over the Little Bow nomination. While this certainly isn’t good news by any means, it does show that a Wildrose nomination is now worth fighting over. The airing of internal party dirty laundry […]
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Your Liberal Talking Points
It appears some Liberals are upset by Stephen Harper’s musical performance at the Conservative Christmas Party: Upstaged yet again by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who took to the stage Wednesday night at the Conservative caucus Christmas party, the Liberals were up early grumpily emailing reaction. “Not even one song in French,” a senior Ignatieff official […]
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I won’t get that majority ’till the day I die
Finally an explanation for Harper’s anemic legislative agenda – he’s been practicing.
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In the news
No, I haven’t joined Gordon Campbell, Jim Prentice, Danny Williams, and Carole James in retirement. Rather, I’ve been off on vacation for the past week, so here’s a few quick hits on what I’ve missed: 1) On my by election numbers post, I said there’s no evidence of a long term decline in by election […]
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By Election Numbers II
Even though everyone (myself included) loves to compare by election results to the last election, by elections are not general elections. As such, the more useful comparison is to other by elections. With that in mind, let’s dive in to the numbers from this last round of by elections. Turnout Turnout was 32.4% in Vaughan, […]
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Liberals Gain More than any Party – Sign of Tory Majority
So says John Ibbitson. In fairness, this column was probably written before the results came in last night but still – it just underscores why you shouldn’t read too much into by elections. Even after the famed Outremont “disaster”, Dion gained seats in Quebec – the only part of the country where that happened. And […]
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By Election Numbers
By elections have a life of their own. It’s an exercise in futility to project them and it’s foolhearty to use them as barometers of where public support is shifting. Especially when most people were voting for Julian Fantino or Kevin Lamoureux, rather than for the Conservative or Liberal Parties. But, since we all know […]