Consider this a minor update to my first round ballot projections…or, more appropriately, a correction. It seems, I had the wrong formula in my excel spreadsheet for calculating existing support, which caused a few numbers to be skewed.
I’ve corrected this and also gone through and used the most recent blogger endorsement (and for those whining about Cerberus’ totals, get over it – he’s been counting them in a consistent and fair manner so I’ll keep using his numbers), MP endorsement, wikipedia endorsement, and media numbers. I’ve also tinkered with a few of the membership sale numbers due to feedback I received after my first post. Finally, I replaced the “website rankings” with the Democratic Space projections, as part of my formula to find existing support. Just because Hedy Fry’s website ranks 5 and Ignatieff’s ranks 9, doesn’t mean she has over half of the support he does. If more bloggers come up with credible projections, I’ll be sure to average them in as well.
What I haven’t updated are the fundraising numbers, because I cannot find any site listing the number and total value of donations for all candidates to the end of July, in a format a normal human being could be expected to understand. Once I find some consistent up to date fundraising numbers, I’ll post a complete update. I also plan to put my spreadsheet on google spreadsheets this weekend, in order to allow people to scrutinize it. If anyone would like be to send them a copy of the numbers I’m using, just drop me an e-mail and I’ll send the sheet to you.
With all that said, here is where the first ballot projections sit:
Ignatieff 26.76%
Kennedy 17.67%
Rae 15.03%
Dion 12.41%
Volpe 10.17%
Dryden 6.90%
Brison 6.58%
Findlay 2.05%
Bennett 1.75%
Fry 0.67%
Truth be told, these numbers seem a bit more intuitively correct to me than the ones I’d previously posted with the glitch. Ignatieff is clearly in front, although he will still need to be a lot of Liberals’ second choice if he hopes to win it all. Volpe moves up a bit higher than before but, remember, this is under the assumption that he still controls the Jimmy K forms. Once I manage to get my hands on some credible fundraising numbers, I imagine we’ll see a bit of movement in the projections.