(for methodology used, click here)

Cerberus and DemocraticSpace have posted projections today so I figured I’d take the time to update my leadership projections and posted them on google spreadsheets for everyone to take a look at (if you’d like the excel file with formulas, e-mail me). I recognize that it may not be the easiest to read so e-mail me if you’re confused by the set-up.

I’ve updated the numbers for endorsements, MP endorsements, blog endorsements, ex-officio support (averaged between delegate count and wikipedia), other projections, and media mentions. I’ve also bit the bullet and used the bizarre fundraising numbers which were released in August. Hopefully we’ll see some figures released soon which bring all the candidates up to August 31st. I’ve also tinkered with the existing member support in a few ridings, primarily to help Bob Rae who has undeniably had a good month (also gave him a few more membership sales in Ontario under the assumption that some of Bennett’s support will drift his way).

When that’s all said and done, here are my updated first ballot predictions:

Michael Ignatieff 26.2%
Gerard Kennedy 18.5%
Bob Rae 15.9%
Stephane Dion 13.9%
Joe Volpe 10.2%
Scott Brison 6.5%
Ken Dryden 6.4%
Martha Hall Findlay 2.0%
Hedy Fry 0.5%