It’s finally here. And I’m not ashamed to admit I’m really looking forward to seeing the results as they roll in. For anyone looking for last minute leadership reading, I’ve updated my Race for Stornoway page – it’s got my profiles, Globe profiles, news stories, links, and anything else I thought was worthy of stealing from Cerberus’ page.

And since all my work on first ballot projections will be moot in 72 hours time, I figured I’d include one last update for my projections. I’ve added an ever so small weighting of existing member support based on the form 6 count at Democratic Space (didn’t want to weight it too heavily since there’s not an even representation from all provinces and different campaigns had different strategies on the number to fill out). My spreadsheet is online here. I’ll skip the rest of the methodology spiel and give the predictions my formula produces:

Ignatieff 26.7%
Rae 17.9%
Kennedy 17.7%
Dion 14.6%
Volpe 7.8%
Dryden 7.2%
Brison 6.3%
Findlay 1.9%

I’d personally put Volpe a little lower and Martha a little higher but, apart from that, I’m reasonably confident that the picture which emerges after this weekend will look something like the above.

And, just for fun, here’s my best guess on Alberta:

Kennedy 26%
Ignatieff 24%
Dion 16%
Rae 12%
Volpe 8%
Brison 7%
Findlay 3%
Dryden 2%
Uncommitted 2%