What’s the old saying about elections being decided by the time BC results come in? Well, in this instance, the delay was a bit more than 3 hours, but BC has finally reported their delegate totals (pending appeals related to the Bob Rae funny business). With 23 ridings to go, the Liberal delegate totals sit as such:

Ignatieff – 1379 (29%)
Rae – 949 (20%)
Kennedy – 817 (17.2%)
Dion – 770 (16.2%)
Dryden – 244 (5.1%)
Volpe – 230 (4.8%)
Brison – 185 (3.9%)
Findlay – 42 (0.9%)
Undeclared – 133 (2.8%)

One imagines the ex-officio count will shift Iggy up slightly and Rae down a tad but the real key will be how effective campaigns are at getting their delegates to Montreal.

As for the convention itself, I think the likeliest scenario is something along these lines:

Ballot 1: Similar results to above. The bottom four all drop off before round 2.
Ballot 2: The three-way mexican standoff has it’s first round. In all likelihood, either Dion or Kennedy finish fourth and drop off.
Ballot 3: The standoff becomes a two man race between Rae and either Kennedy or Dion. If the fourth place finisher endorses one of the other two, that man moves on. If number 4 endorses Iggy, Ignatieff is likely close enough to make the last ballot a formality.
Ballot 4: Kennedy/Rae/Dion take on Iggy for the top prize.

I’m still trying to figure out permutations where Joe Volpe comes out on top but most of them involve massive earthquakes swallowing up large amounts of the Montreal Convention Centre.