Ekos has finally released the detailed tables from their much talked about poll. Given the fifty million ways anyone could spin this thing, I’m hard at work figuring out how this poll shows an inevitable Scott Brison victory and will post my thoughts on that a bit later today.
In the meantime, here’s the breakdown on the “nation” question:
1. Do you think the Liberal Party of Canada should adopt as policy a commitment to recognizing Quebec as a nation?
Yes 29%
No 58%
Dunno 13%
Iggy Delegates: 54% yes, 31% no
Rae Delegates: 27% yes, 63% no
Kennedy Delegates: 13% yes, 74% no
Dion Delegates: 14% yes, 75% no
2. Not withstanding the policy issue, do you personally agree or disagree with the following statement: “I think the Quebec people form a nation”
Strongly disagree: 31%
Somewhat disagree: 20%
Somewhat agree: 21%
Strongly agree: 16%
Dunno: 11%
So what does this all mean? Well, bringing up the nation question may very well have been the worst move Michael Ignatieff made this campaign. Liberal delegates oppose the concept by a 51-37 margin and oppose the formalization of it by a 58-29 margin. Most alarmingly for Ignatieff is the degree of opposition by delegates to the other three challengers, in particular among Kennedy and Dion delegates. Obviously this is a topic which Ignatieff desperately needs to downplay and I suspect he’ll do everything he can to try and turn this into a non-issue.
Most interesting for me was how it broke down among candidate affiliations. The entire nation question didn’t really explode as an issue until September after most Liberals had declared their leadership intentions. So, either delegates were drawn to candidates who shared their general view of federalism or the delegates are, by and large, following the policy position advocated by their guy.
UPDATE: Looks like the general public isn’t so keen on this idea either…
UPDATE 2: Paul Wells shows us yet another quote from “summer Bob” who supported nationhood, unlike the more mellow “fall Bob”, who is cooler to the idea.