‘Tis the season for election speculation. Here’s a run down of some of the high profile Liberals who might have a safe seat on their Christmas wish list now that the parties are starting to gear up for the next vote.
Bob Rae – I must first say that I find it someone ironic that the candidate who put out the least policy during this leadership race will be writing the Liberal platform but I’m sure Bob will do a good job the offer is very reminiscent of Chretien putting Martin in charge of the Red Book after his win in 1990. As for where Bob’ll run, that’s the $845,000 question. A lot of Liberals are talking about Rae taking on Jack uno a uno in Toronto Danforth and the proposal certainly has it’s merits. Last election Layton beat Deborah Coyne by 14% of the vote but it was a lot closer in 2004 and with every poll we saw this summer saying Rae could steal NDP votes, this would be The battle of the election and likely the best use of Rae’s star power.
Gerard Kennedy – There are a lot of options for Kennedy but the most logical would seem to be to take on Peggy Nash in Parkdale. Even though the riding is now NDP both federally and provincially, Kennedy has stolen this riding from the Dippers before and won the seat in 2003 by an uber-majority (over a 40% lead on his closest challenger). Kennedy could also try and establish his credentials as a Western Liberal for a future leadership run which would make several Manitoba seats appealing. The Dan Report speculates about a run in Winnipeg South.
Martha Hall Findlay – After the campaign she ran, her impact on Dion’s win, and the fact that she’s been shuffled aside in the past for a “star” candidate, you have to figure Martha will get a safe seat. And since the safest seat around is Toronto Centre, that’s where my money is.
Justin Trudeau – It’s been speculated for a long time that Justin would one day run and the stars seem to be aligning for it. He raised his Liberal profile during the convention and the party is in desperate need of fresh blood in Quebec. Justin is as good at retail politics as any of the pros and it would give the Liberals some youthful energy in the Quebec caucus if he won a seat. Outremont seems to be the most talked about target, although daddy’s old riding in Mount Royal could open up if Cotler decides to not run again.
Christy Clark – I haven’t heard this rumour anywhere so I figure I’ll be the one to start it. Given that Dion is looking for strong female candidates and Christy’s husband just happens to be Dion’s national campaign manager, it certainly seems like a logical fit. There are a few BC ridings which are ripe for the taking and Christy would be a fantastic addition to the federal caucus.
Martin Cauchon – After reading the Macleans leadership spectacular, one thing which struck me was how blunt Martin Cauchon was about still hosting future leadership ambitions. With that in mind, now might be a good time for a return to federal politics and his old riding (Outremont) has conveniently opened up with Jean Lapierre’s retirement from politics.
Other Names
If Cauchon is making a comeback, certainly a few others in the “Chretien gang” might be considering it too. Allan Rock’s endorsement of Stephane Dion was interesting, considering the neutrality of the likes of John Manley and Frank McKenna. It’s also not out of the realm of possibility that a Jane Stewart or Bob Nault might consider returning to the kingdom they were driven out of three years ago. Jane Taber mentions a possible Collenette run in Ottawa Centre, although it’s Penny, not David. Fuddle Duddle has speculated about some of the Quebec seats and tosses out Brigitte Legault’s name as a young female candidate. There’s also some talk of a Liza Frulla comeback. As for fellow defeated Liberals Anne McLellan and Reg Alcock, they haven’t tilted their hand one way or the other.