It’s debatable how much stock we should be placing in the polls until Ignatieff gets a chance to fully define himself. So rather than going bonkers over every poll that gets released, I think I’ll just do a once-a-month round-up to get a rough lay of the land.
So here’s what Canadians have been telling pollsters of late:
Angus Reid (Jan 14-15, 1000 online)
CPC 39%
Lib 30%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Green 5%
Strategic Counsel (Jan 12-14, 1000 telephone)
CPC 36%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 11%
Green 5%
Ipsos Reid (Jan 6-8, 1000 telephone)
CPC 39%
Lib 28%
NDP 15%
BQ 8%
Green 9%
Nanos (Jan 3-7, 1000 telephone)
CPC 33%
Lib 34%
NDP 19%
BQ 7%
Green 7%
MEAN
CPC 36.75%
Lib 30.5%
NDP 17.25%
BQ 8.75%
Green 6.5%
So, taken as a whole, it appears we’re back to the 6-point holding pattern, which has generally been the norm since 2006. Despite this, there is some good news in Liberal land – Harper’s “coalition bounce” is gone, the Grits are up in Quebec in every one of these polls, and Ignatieff is doing better on the “best PM” question than Dion ever did.
And all of that, is the context you can be sure the parties will be keeping in mind, as they decide how to approach the upcoming budget.