Yeah, yeah, by-elections are meaningless. The Alberta PCs lost the Elbow by election in 2007 and a year later, they swept the province, winning 70 seats.

But it’s hard for them to not be at least a little worried by what’s going on tonight. With 56 of 66 polls reporting:

Hinman (Wild Rose Alliance): 3,261
Roberts (Liberals): 2,986
Colley–Urquart (PCs): 2,219
Carpendale (NDP): barely cracking triple digits

This isn’t just PCs staying home (although that’s definitely happening). The Wild Rose Alliance, a leaderless party, has already more than tripled their 2008 vote total.

That’s something the PCs should be very, very concerned about.

UPDATE: With the advance polls still to come, Hinman is up by 275 votes on the Liberals and 1,124 on the PCs. Assuming his lead holds (I have no idea how much of a push the parties made to get people out for the advance vote), Hinman would have the only 2 wins in WRA (and their previous incarnations) history – in two different ridings, hundreds of miles apart. That’s no small feat.