The media focus has shifted away from Danielle Smith’s Wildrose leadership victory, onto Ed Stelmach’s November 7th leadership review. The latest? Alan Hallman has come forward suggesting Stelmach has been a failure and should be replaced. And, as Jim Dinning’s 2006 leadership campaign manager, Hallman is certainly an expert on the topic of political failure.

Yes, I know what you’re thinking. Stelmach picked up 10 new seats, winning 72 of 83 seats the last election, his first. And his party wants him out? Because they’re worried about a party that has never held more than 1 seat in legislature? I know, I know…Alberta politics is difficult to understand.

With few connections in the PCs, any predictions I could make about Stelmach’s fate would be a shot in the dark – so I’ll take that shot and say Ed gets about 70% and stays on.

SPEAKING OF WHICH…

Danielle Smith (little known fact: Danielle was runner-up to Obama for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize) appears to be targeting Calgary North Hill as the riding she wants to run in next election (sorry Kyle!).

2008 Northhill Results
Kyle Fawcett 4,292 (PC) 37.94%
Pat Murray 3,589 (ALP) 31.72%
John Chan 1,490 (NDP) 13.17%
Jane Morgan 977 (WRA) 8.64%
Kevin Maloney 736 (GP) 6.51%
Jim Wright 229 (SC) 2.02%

The riding would appear to be a bit more left-leaning than Glenmore, with a slim majority of the riding voting for the Liberals, NDP, or Greens last election. That means that even if Smith converts half the PC vote and maintains the WRA/SC base, she might still fall short of the Liberals (especially if some of the Green vote drifts to Swann now that the Alberta Greens have been deregistered).

Still, voter turn-out was so embarrassingly low last election that it’s risky to do math like that, especially when Smith herself could be a game changer. The bottom line is that this is a riding that can be won with 35% of the vote, and if Smith can’t clear that hurdle in her home riding, then we’re all wasting a lot of time talking about her.