With the Tories widening their polling lead over the Liberals in March, it’s easy to attribute this to a post-Olympic bounce, or reaction to the federal budget. But the Olympic bounce logic never made much sense to me, and given I can’t even remember three details about the budget, I’d imagine it hasn’t had a huge impact on most regular Canadians.

Rather, I tend to attribute the change in support from January and February to the prorogation backlash gradually dissipating. The Conservatives certainly aren’t back to their end-of-2009 support levels, but a it looks to me like some disgruntled Tories are heading home.

Ekos (March 24-30, n=1855 demon dialled)
CPC 32.2%
Lib 27.0%
NDP 16.0%
BQ 9.0%
Green 12.7%
Other 3.1%

Angus Reid (March 25-26, n=1004 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 20%
BQ 9%
Green 7%

IpsosReid (March 16-18, n=1001 phone)
CPC 34%
Lib 28%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 10%

Nanos (March 6-12, n = 1000 telephone)
CPC 34.7%
Lib 34.6%
NDP 17.8%
BQ 7.7%
Green 5.2%

AVERAGE (change since February in brackets)

Conservative Party: 34.0% (+0.8%)
Liberal Party: 29.2% (-2.8%)
NDP: 18.0% (+2.0%)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.7% (-0.2%)
Green Party 8.7% (-0.2%)

IN OTHER POLLING NEWS…

For Liberals despondent over limp federal numbers, and lackluster approval numbers for Misters Charest, McGuinty, Campbell, and Graham, rest assured…we’ve still got PEI! The last bastion of Liberalism remains as red as Anne’s hair!