It’s hard to spin 2010 as a good year for Harper. He kicked the year off facing an unexpected fury over prorogation and declining poll numbers. He was attacked relentlessly by the opposition over G20 spending, the Census, and the $16 billion dollar fighter jet purchase. He had few accomplishments other than meeting Bonhomme Carnival and ensuring his post-politics musical tour will be sold out.

For the Liberals, 2010 felt better than 2009. They had a succesful summer bus tour and started rolling out policy planks voters could relate to. The economy continued to stumble along which is historically good news for opposition parties. Hell, just look at the trouble other incumbents had this year.

And yet…Harper was only a point or two up on the Liberals after getting hit by prorogation in January. And he closes the year riding the wave of the Vaughan by election, amid media and pollster speculation about a possible majority government. I think that’s still premature – and I’ll have seat projections to back that up tomorrow. But, for whatever reason, Harper has most definitely recovered from his horrible start to 2010 and is all the way up to…where he was at this time last year.

Ipsos Reid (Dec 7-9, n=1000 phone)
CPC 39%
Lib 29%
NDP 12%
Bloc 10%
Green 9%

Angus Reid (Dec 6-7, n = 1013 online)
CPC 38%
Lib 26%
NDP 18%
Bloc 10%
Green 7%

Ekos (Dec 1-7, n = 2574 robo dialled)
CPC 33.7%
Lib 29.2%
NDP 14.4%
Bloc 9.8%
Green 10.4%

Abacus (Dec 3-6, n = 1316 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 24%
NDP 20%
Bloc 10%
Green 10%

Nanos (Nov 29-Dec 2, n = 1017 phone)
CPC 38.1%
Lib 31.2%
NDP 17.2%
Bloc 10.2%
Green 3.2%

RUNNING AVERAGE (change since November in brackets)

CPC: 36.1% (+2.4%)
Lib: 28.5% (-0.2%)
NDP: 15.6% (-1.2%)
BQ: 9.8% (+0.4%)
Green: 8.5% (-1.1%)

Note: the running average is calculated based on sample size and pollster accuracy ratings, giving all polls (not just those listed above) a 2 week half life so that “fresher” data is worth more.