Ho ho ho! Look what Santa has brought Stephen Harper for Christmas. Why, it’s a 17.6% chance at a majority.

For the first time since I started running these projections in July, a Conservative majority is a real possibility, abeit still a low probability outcome. Of course, these projections are based on where the ball is now – and Harper’s numbers always seem to bounce back down whenever he gets close to that elusive majority.

Since the last update, Harper’s largest gains have come in Ontario (up 6 seats on average) and BC (up 5 seats on average) – his support numbers have not shifted noticeably anywhere else in the country.

Does this mean he’ll try for an early 2011 election? Unless he thinks he can nab that majority, there’s no real incentive to. He’s in power, his job is secure, and the opposition parties aren’t exactly chomping at his heels (as these numbers show).

For a long methodology description, click here. For a shorter one, you can just read the first few lines of last month’s update.