SES is out with some new polling numbers. I don’t really put a lot of stock in either of these polls because they’re the type of questions that are really difficult to draw any conclusions from. But they’re fun nevertheless, so I figured I’d post them here.
If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Prime Minister Paul Martin, what would it be? [Unprompted]
Be more transparent/accountable/honest – 15.5%
Be more aggressive/decisive/get a backbone – 7.8%
Change policy positions – 7.3%
Change everything/new leader – 5.1%
Be more down to earth/listen to Canadians – 4.7%
Change his attitude/be less arrogant – 3.0%
Too close to Bush/stand up to Americans – 2.4%
Too close to big business/CSL loopholes – 2.3%
Change nothing – 2.1%
Other (Answers with less than 2%) – 11.4%
Unsure – 11.5%
No Answer – 26.9%
If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, what would it be? [Unprompted]
Change everything/new leader – 8.7%
Be more open-minded – 5.8%
Have more personality/better image – 5.3%
Change policy positions – 4.7%
Be less conservative/religious – 4.0%
Be more honest/have more integrity – 2.3%
Change his attitude/be less arrogant – 2.0%
Be more charismatic/inspire Canadians – 2.0%
Other (Answers with less than 2%) – 14.4%
Unsure – 18.4%
No Answer – 32.4%
It is interesting that image problems do seem to score a lot higher up on Harper’s list than on Martin’s. And this is probably what convinced Harper’s entourage that he needed an image make-over. The problem is, while someone may answer “have more personality” or “be more charismatic” in a telephone interview, is there anyone out there who honestly votes based on this? I mean, I would hope that more than 4.7% of Canadians voted against Harper because of his policy position.
Onto the second poll:
Question: Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Paul Martin as Liberal leader?
Frank McKenna 23% (Liberal voters 28%)
Bob Rae 11% (Liberal voters 11%)
John Manley 11% (Liberal voters 13%)
Martin Cauchon 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Michael Ignatieff 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Other* 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
Undecided 43% (Liberal voters 37%)
Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Stephen Harper as Conservative Leader?
Peter MacKay 17% (Conservative voters 30%)
Mike Harris 15% (Conservative voters 21%)
Bernard Lord 13% (Conservative voters 12%)
Jean Charest 9% (Conservative voters 6%)
Jim Prentice 3% (Conservative voters 5%)
Other* 2% (Conservative voters 2%)
Undecided 41% (Conservative voters 25%)
There are a ton of problems with polls like this. First of all, they only pick five candidates for each party and all the public really bases their response on in name recognition. It was silly hypothetical polls just like this that helped get John Kerry nominated and, well, we all saw how that worked out.
Also, if you asked me who I hoped would succeed Stephen Harper, as a Liberal, my choice would be Stockwell Day. I suspect this might explain why Bob Rae performed so well…