We’re now down to the stretch drive in the OLP leadership sprint, with the following (still unofficial) delegate count after this weekend’s round of voting:
Pupatello 506
Wynne 468
Kennedy 259
Takhar 244
Sousa 204
Hoskins 104
Independent 67
It’s a fractured field, and that becomes even more apparent when you consider no candidate received over 22% of the actual votes cast. It will come down to the convention, at which point delegates will be free to jump any which way after the first ballot. As history has shown, delegated conventions are unpredictable beasts, so it’s anybody’s guess who exits Maple Leaf Gardens as Premier in 10 days time.
5 responses to “Down to the Wire”
I imagine the top three campaigns have used the decoy delegate strategy, but would venture a guess that either Pupatello’s or Wynne’s first round vote total will be less (by a significant margin) than their total delegate count.
A woman as Premier would be terrific, and you’ve got me keen on Kennedy as well (good luck at MLG btw).
Well, if she shares the same fate as Christie Clark likely does here in BC, I’d not get too excited. The pair of them might have a Kim Campbell experience ahead of them.
Or maybe she’ll do an Allison Redford and get re-elected along with her party. Who knows.
Inspired by your LPCLDR poll, it would be interesting to see how a (fake) ranked ballot for OLPLDR might go: in particular, as an insight as to how second and third ballot choices might break down were it the general internet population and not registered delegates (individuals who may be subject to lobbying on behalf of other candidates) who were casting ballots.
It’s Pupatello’s to lose at this point. She’s leading among ex officio delegate support as well. The worst kept secret of the race is that Takhar will move to her on the second or third ballot. Sousa likely will too. The uninspiring Dalton McGuinty went from fourth to first in 1996 because the delegates couldn’t stomach the thought of a leader from Toronto. I suspect that there will be increased movement to Pupatello as the perceived likely winner, and she will probably be well out front on the first ballot with plenty of growth potential. As I said, hers to lose at this point.