The saying here in Calgary is “if you don’t like the weather, wait 15 minutes“. Given the past week, I think Ottawa should adopt “if you don’t like the election speculation, wait 15 minutes“.

We’ve seen so many possible election dates bandied around over the past week, that’s it’s almost become futile to speculate on them. The latest rumour has the Tories set to topple the Liberals this Tuesday. The Tories are suggesting a December 21st election (Wednesday?), but you have to realistically think that would set up an early January vote.

What will happen? I’m all “speculated out” at this point so I have no clue. It’s safe to say this Parliament will die before Christmas, it’s just a matter of when.

UPDATE: Well, this seems like a fairly reasonable plan of action. Take the next week to frame the choice as a February vote or a Christmas campaign and then, when Martin refuses to give in, pull the plug the week of the 21st.

SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE: The Liberals have rejected the proposal…again. One therefore imagines things will unfold as follows:
1. NDP motion is passed this Tuesday.
2. A week of posturing over who is to blame for the Christmas campaign.
3. The government is defeated on a Conservative non-confidence motion on Tuesday, November 22nd. I imagine the Liberals will want as long as campaign as possible, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them push the election day all the way back to January 16th or 23rd.

Mind you, this is all assuming Tony Valeri doesn’t have some fun with the procedural calendar…