For a while, it seemed like PEI would be the last bastion of Liberalism in Canada. Nearly 10% of the Liberal Party’s parliamentary caucus hailed from the island, and with long-standing Liberal governments in Ontario, Quebec, and BC teetering on the brink of defeat, it looked like Robert Ghiz might be the last grit standing. A spec of red engulfed in a blue-orange mosaic.
At one point this year, there were 7 Liberal leadership races going on. This presented an opportunity for renewal, but could also be viewed as an uncertain party in a period of extended turbulence.
Now, Christy Clark has a fresh mandate, Kathleen Wynne tops the polls, and Philippe Couillard has given the PLQ new life. The youthful leadership of Brian Gallant has staked the New Brunswick Liberals to a 23-point lead, and the Newfoundland Liberal Party has gone from third to first in the polls. Even the long moribund Manitoba Liberals are showing signs of life.
And, oh yeah, there’s that whole Trudeaumania thing.
The latest good news from Liberal land comes from Nova Scotia, where voters tuned into another Dexter finale tonight, tossing their NDP Premier overboard after a single term in office (the first Nova Scotia party to suffer this fate since 1882). To replace him, they turned not to the PCs, but to a Liberal Party which has not formed government this century. McNeil didn’t just win, he dominated, taking two-thirds of the seats, while the NDP tumbled to third.
Politics are insanely complicated, so it’s best not to grasp for common threads between elections which have little in common. The BC Liberals are a very different party from the Nova Scotia Liberals, and Christy Clark was in a very different situation from Stephen McNeil. We all loved to talk about the winning streak incumbent governments were on in Canada…until Jean Charest (and now Dexter) lost. There’s likely not a lot linking this string of good news for Liberal Parties across Canada, other than natural voting cycles.
Still, the results in Nova Scotia provide us with more evidence that the reports of the Liberal Party’s death have been greatly exaggerated.
9 responses to “The Red Wave”
My uncle was McNeil’s chief of staff in his first period as leader, up until the 2009 election. The main anecdote I remember about him was all his advisers urgently trying to convince him to shave his beard in order to appeal to female voters more, which he, eventually.
Clearly a wise move, in retrospect.
McNeil certainly doesn’t come across as a charismatic leader by any means, but he does seem to have grown into his role.
And yes, I’m in agreement that shaving the beard was definitely a wise move.
It’s not the “youthful leadership of Brian Gallant” that’s given the NB Grits a 23 point lead. Most NBers who don’t pay attention to politics couldn’t pick him out of a police lineup.
It’s the “ineffective leadership of David Alward” that has placed his Tories 23 points back in 3rd place.
You’re probably right on that front. Any chance for Alward to turn it around in your opinion?
A stunning comedown for the provincial NDP, and another blow for the party as a whole.
Things don’t look good for Mulcair right now.
(Maybe the image of Newman’s book is one of convenience given its relevance to the blog post – if so, ignore the following comment.)
Newman’s book is centered around two assertions – the end of the Liberal Party as we know it, and the end of Liberal values being pan-Canadian in nature.
I’d agree that Newman’s mourning of the collapse of the Liberal viable, influential political party was always more book-selling-hyperbole than reality.
But given that McNeil got elected on a platform that Mike Harris would have embraced, and Christy Clark was reelected based on shooting for the Reform crowd through Stephen Harper’s playbook and strategists, and that the Liberal parties of BC, Manitoba, and Quebec have tended to be more Liberal in brand than in policy or values, one would have difficulty disproving Newman’s second assertion regarding the decline of Liberal values as the accepted Canada-wide political orthodoxy.
So the question is – what is the relative benefit brand wins vs. policy wins, and to ensure that the former advance the latter?
This is definitely a huge blow to the federal NDP.
The funny thing the provincial NDP east of Manitoba have never understood is that when they more often than not govern like Liberals, they end up getting a party elected that more often than not then governs like Conservatives.
It’s funny. I still lived in Nova Scotia last election, and I remember watching the leaders’ debate and thinking, “Dexter is offering everything, and I simply don’t believe he can do it.” So I voted Liberal, because McNeil et al. seemed less unrealistic and also decent, and some amazing culmination of events would have to occur for me to vote PC.
This time, I don’t live in NS, but I followed the campaign a little bit. I was actually more convinced by Dexter’s ‘older/wiser/more realistic/candid about promises not met’ schtick than McNeil’s vague ‘trust me, I won’t break any promises’ deal (which seemed like one of the only clear promises he was offering…).
I’d still have voted Liberal were I able to vote in the election, because I was not happy with some of the things the NDP did, but I actually expected the NDP to do way better than the polls were suggesting, owing to polling inaccuracy of late, the power of incumbency, and how Dexter sort of convinced me the NDP maybe deserved a second chance. I was even mentally prepared for the NDP to win a minority, although I didn’t think it was likely.
So I’m sort of surprised, sort of not, but mostly happy with the outcome. Now it’s up to the Liberals to not be disappointing, and do their best to revive an apparently declining region. (A region I would move back to in a heartbeat, I would add.)
I should also add, now that Pamela Eyking has joined Kelly Regan in the House of Assembly, that getting your wife elected to the provincial legislature seems like the cool thing for Liberal MPs from Nova Scotia to do.
clearly Raj Sherman will be the next Alberta premier.