I really hate to post the results of a Forum poll. Especially for a by-election, where the stakes are low and turnout will be lower.
But…wow. The fact that the Liberals are even in the game in a riding like Brandon is just stunning. No, they won’t win, but for a party which picked up 5% of the vote there last election and was looking up at Elizabeth May, a strong second would be an impressive show.
6 responses to “Today in meaningless polling”
It’s the punk rock factor!
I hope he’s got SFH booked for the victory party.
This is a race where, if we had an American-style system, an upset would be a much stronger possibility (trouble with the Conservative nominating process, the Liberal nominee being the son of a popular former Tory MP). Since the party name matters a lot more, and individual MPs much less, that likelihood is lesser.
All the same, the Liberals should pursue this one. The riding is quite Tory (we’ve held it in the past for a grand total of one term, and that was wholly the result of vote splitting), and any strong showing we make will be powerful ammunition, particularly in recruiting people to run in more winnable ridings.
If we actually did win it somehow, that’d be a huge story, but I wouldn’t bet on that right now. Best of luck to Dinsdale, though.
You’re right about party affiliation, though I’d say in by-elections that matters less. This is the type of riding the Liberals would never take in a general, but you could see a Kevin Lamoureux-type of upset in the by-election.
It’s not likely, but it is possible.
There’s no way Brandon does Liberal. If this poll holds up, there’ll be knives out for both the PM and Official Opposition Leader.
With apologies to the Tragically Hip, count me amongst those who believe that a “small town bringdown” could well be possible for Larry Maguire there in Brandon–Souris, with a pair of Ricks (Borotsik, the former PC MP and Pauls, the mayor of Killarney) on board for the LPC…both of whom can’t exactly be ignored.