The Starting Line


I’m undecided as to how much of a poll whore I intend to be this election. So feel free to comment on whether you’d prefer I go orgasmic over every 1% shift in the regional breakdowns (“OMG! The Liberals are up 2 points in Newfoundland!!!!”), or would rather I live in blind ignorance of the numbers on the ground (“my gut tells me the Liberals are doing well in Quebec!”).

However, it’s good to see where the parties are starting off from so I’ll post the two polls which came out today:

Pollara
Liberal 36%
Conservative 31%
NDP 16%
BQ 14%

Environics
Liberal 35%
Conservative 30%
NDP 20%
BQ 14%
Green 1%

The Quebec numbers are just ugly for the Grits right now with the BQ at, or near, 60% in both polls. If those numbers hold (and they rarely do for the BQ), that would translate to a near sweep of the francophone ridings.

The Liberals are up by 12 in Ontario in the Environics poll, but only 4 in Pollara. Safe to say, if the Tories can somehow stay at (or above?) 38%, they’ll be in very good shape come election day.

Most important, in my opinion, is that 17% are still undecided. So the campaign will matter.

Now, with all this in mind, I encourage everyone to head over to the second (annual?) James Bow election pool and cast their predictions. I’ll be posting my predictions later this week…every day I go back and forth between who I think will come out on top.

UPDATE: The pollsters are surprisingly consistent. Allan Gregg has it as:

Liberal 35
Conservative 29
NDP 17
BQ 14
Green 5

The best news for the Conservatives? More voters feel the Liberals are harbouring a “secret agenda” than the Conservatives. Wow.

TUESDAY UPDATE: Ipsos has it 31-31.


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