Two weeks down. The Liberals are up in the polls, but there are a lot of storm clouds brewing on the horizon for them. I still think the election is a 50/50 proposition. Here’s my week 2 recap:
Weekly Winner: Bernard Lord. This was a tough one since no one came out of the week looking great. But Bernie has been the most effective at knocking Paul’s Quebec strategy, and with Harper still down in the polls, Lord may very well be rising in the near future.
Weekly Loser: I had no idea who to pick for this one when I got up this morning. But Scott Reid, you made my day. Reid may feel that “Alberta can blow me”, and while I certainly wouldn’t go that far, this Albertan is very pleased to give him the “weekly loser” award.
The Polls: Here are the averages from the latest SES, Leger, Ipsos-Reid, and Strategic Counsel poll numbers, with predicted seats that translates to, in brackets:
Liberals 37% (133)
Conservatives 29.25% (99)
NDP 15.5% (19)
BQ 13% (56)
Look Familiar?
Blog of the Week: MK. Braaten has showed how bloggers can dig deep and potentially make a difference. He’s been all over the Income Trust story.
Scott Feschuck Line of the Week:
6:56 AM – I didn’t actually get a chance to watch Two and a Half Men last night, but darned if that’s going to stop me from winning a vote by describing it:
The episode began with Charlie Sheen and that other guy, the one who didn’t work between Pretty in Pink and the year 2002, proving just how wacky a wacky odd couple they are by having profoundly conflicting views about a variety of matters. Then events conspired to place Charlie Sheen in a “situation.” Mayhem and canned laughter ensued. Charlie ultimately triumphed over his “situation” by learning a valuable life lesson and making anywhere from three to seven sly references to his own real-life promiscuous and badboy ways. And then everyone died a little inside.
Quote of the Week: Rob Anders. OK, it’s not a quote per sey but his “homosexual sex marriage” line is the catch phrase of the campaign. I think this one has “comfy welcome mat with lots of fur” and “temporary ad hoc rainbow coalition” potential.
Old Man Winter: Jack Layton becomes the first victim of cold weather on Friday, when his plane got delayed.
Liberals Week in Review: Grade B
The Liberals were flying high in the polls this week. Maybe that’s why they haven’t gone negative on Stephen Harper yet, preferring to go negative against George W. Bush. I have my doubts that the attacks on Bush will do Martin much good because they’ve only served to highlight how pathetic Canada’s Kyoto plan is. Martin actually came out with some policy that got people talking about daycare and gun control rather than tax cuts, which certainly is where he wants the discussion to be.
Conservatives Week in Review: Grade B
Well, it appears every imaginable special interest group has gotten a tax cut offered to them. But they don’t appear to be biting, as Tory support continues to be stagnant. That said, Harper has looked comfortable and he’s speaking well, which is certainly good news for the CPC with both them and the Liberals trying to make the campaign about Harper. The debates will likely be more important for Harper than any other leader.
NDP Week in Review: Grade C+
Second verse, same as the first. Like in week one, Buzz Hargrove was a pain in the ass, and good NDP policy continued to get completely ignored. In fact, the only policy of theirs that got serious media pay was the “Belinda Bill” against switching parties. It’s a shame, because Layton has put forward some interesting policy proposals that deserves debate. On the positive side is their new commercial everyone is raving about and some fun they’ve had on their website. If the NDP can continue to go negative in a humorous way the rest of the campaign, they’ll be in very good shape.
BQ Week in Review: Grade C
Gilles Duceppe was the star of last year’s election campaign, so I’ve really been surprised by his performance so far. This week started with his “make the Liberals disappear” comments which were followed up throughout the week with a series of somewhat arrogant remarks and his chastising of a Bloc candidate who refused to talk about sovereignty.
Four Things to Watch for this Week:
1. The debates on Thursday and Friday will be key. We’ve had a lot of policy discussion and this will be a chance for the party leaders to explain it to a larger audience.
2. Income Trusts: The story has been flying through the blogs this weekend and it will be very interesting to see if the mainstream media picks up on it.
3. Daycare: The NDP will be revealing their daycare plan this week and, with Scott Reid’s comments today, expect the topic to stay in the news.
4. Conservative Commercials: I’d expect the Tories to launch a new group of commercials this week. And after their first ones were panned across the board, they better be good.