Paul Martin has a habit of using hyperbole but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the back-to-back debates coming up will be among the most important since 1988. And it’s certainly not a stretch to say that Paul Martin’s political future rests in his performance tonight. A lot of Canadians will be watching; it’s a Monday, no Canadian NHL teams are playing, the campaign has been in the news a lot lately, and it’s two weeks until voting day. A lot of Canadians realize they need to make up their mind and tonight will solidify voting intentions and push voters in a given direction.

For Harper, he can ease up a bit on the attacks tonight. He’s now the front runner, so he just needs to look like a Prime Minister. Don’t be smug, but look confident and decisive. Highlight the Tory plan and be sure to refute any Liberal attacks brought forward.

For Layton, he needs to make himself relevant. Tell Canadians that they need NDP MPs to keep whichever party wins in line. He needs to start planting the idea that the NDP can keep the Tories in check should they win.

For the first time since he’s been a party leader, Gilles Duceppe has to pay attention to Stephen Harper. While I fully expect Gilles to attack Martin on Option Canada and Paul’s reluctance to “meet him on every street corner”, he needs to go after Harper too.

For Paul, it’s now or never. I hope he got some rest this weekend, because he has looked tired lately. Martin needs to show energy and make the debate about policy. Highlight the overshadowed Liberal policies and attack Harper’s plan.

It should be fun. I’ll be on-line as I watch, with live blogging updates.

Completely off-topic UPDATE: Andrew Coyne has some downright shocking news on the polling front. Decima has the Tories up by 9 points, with the NDP going strong at 20%. In addition, Ipsos Reid is rumoured to be releasing a poll tonight with the Tories up by 11. And Ekos refused to release their latest poll because the results were so shocking they had to go back into the field to confirm them.