Since we’re about to go dark on poll numbers, I figure it’s time to post final predictions for election day. I’ll start with the West today, and move east. Obviously, things could still change (especially if there’s any truth to the somewhat wishful rumour about a “nuclear” CTV story on Harper set to air tomorrow). Regardless, here’s how I see the Western Canadian numbers breaking down:

2004

Territories
3 Liberals

BC
8 Liberals (29%)
22 Tories (36%)
5 Dippers (27%)
1 Independent

Alberta
1 Liberal, 1 quasi-Liberal (22%)
26 Tories (62%)

Saskatchewan
Ralph (27%)
13 Tories (42%)

Manitoba
3 Liberals (33%)
7 Tories (32%)
4 NDP (24%)

Riding to Watch: Edmonton Centre
An Edmonton Journal poll has Laurie Hawn up 42%-37% on incumbent Anne McLellan. While Anne always seems to find a way to win, with a Conservative government likely, I’m going to predict this one goes Conservative.

2006 Predictions
Western Canada should provide the NDP with a few new seats, although the region has always been very Conservative so I don’t foresee the same kind of massive riding switches we might see in other parts of the country.

Expect the Dippers to snatch the NWT from Ethel Blondin-Andrew, ensuring a lot of Orange on the electoral map.
Lib 2, NDP 1

In Manitoba, there are a few interesting ridings. Churchill is Bev Desjarlais’ old riding, but I think the NDP can hang on to it. Selkirk-Interlake features Ed Schreyer and apparently the Liberal candidate has decided to snow shoe across the riding, rather than door knock (seriously…I saw it on CPAC). Still, local polls have the Tory hanging on to it. The Liberal seats are fairly safe, although I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alcock or Neville lose. Still, I’ll play it safe and assume everything stays the same in Manitoba.
Lib 3, CPC 7, NDP 4

In Saskatchewan, Ralph should be safe. The NDP lost a few close races to the Tories here last time, so I expect them to pick up at least one seat somewhere. While the Liberals have hopes for a few, the horrific national campaign is going to make it almost impossible for them to gain here.
Lib 1, CPC 12, NDP 1

In Alberta, I said 28 and 0 from the start and I’m sticking by that. Brad Lavigne seems to think the NDP will beat Rahim Jaffer, but I think Brad is a little out to lunch on this one.
CPC 28

BC is the wild card, and the EPP still has 15 seats there listed as “too close to call” (and they’ve called Vancouver Centre for Hedy over Svend which is a little premature imho). BC always seems to break Conservative on voting day, but I still expect some big gains for the NDP here, likely knocking off David Emerson and/or Keith Martin.
Lib 6, CPC 20, NDP 10

Totals
Liberal 12 (down 5)
Conservative 67 (down 1)
NDP 16 (up 7)