Atlantic Canada
Quebec
Western Canada

From the start, the consensus was that this election would be decided by Ontario voters. In 2004, they didn’t fully trust Harper and rushed back to the Liberals at the last minute. This time? We’ve seen hints of that, but I don’t think it will be enough to turn the tide.

2004 Results

Liberals 75 seats (45%)
Conservatives 24 seats (32%)
NDP 7 seats (18%)

Riding to Watch: Newmarket Aurora

Belinda’s defection from the Tories may have been the best thing to ever happen to Steven Harper. It delayed an election at a time he probably would have lost and brought his party together, giving them time to prepare a coherent election strategy. The Liberals are obviously worried about Belinda, bringing in big names to help her campaign, and moving people from other campaigns to her riding. Belinda herself has conceded that she’s in trouble, and I’m going to predict this one goes Conservative.

2006 Outlook

Toronto remains the Liberal fortress. Jack and Olivia should be able to win their seats, and I expect Sam Butte will be going down in Parkdale. There’s some talk about Peter Kent (CPC) or Paul Summerville (NDP) knocking off Bennett in St. Paul’s but, like Ignatieff’s riding, it’s too safe a Liberal seat for an upset to happen. There are a few other vulnerable ridings, but I suspect that the Liberals will win all but three seats in Toronto.

The 905 is a different story. The NDP should sweep all three Hamilton seats, bringing a smile to Sheila Copps’ face. The Tories will gain at least 6 or 7 new seats here, including Belinda’s. It also looked like Jim Flaherty is pretty much a lock, and talk is he’ll be the new head of the Treasury Board in a Harper government.

Ottawa itself will likely also see a few more CPC MPs. David McGuinty is in tough against Allan Cutler, and John Baird should win in Ottawa-West-Nepean. James Bowie will probably have a job in Maaaaaaahoney’s office should he win, but I tend to think the NDP will hang on. Outside of Peter Miliken, I can’t see any other Liberals in Eastern Ontario, outside of Ottawa, winning.

Expect four time loser Tony Clement to beat Andy Mitchell in Parry Sound, and get a fairly high profile Cabinet Position. A lot of other seats in the North and West should drift to the Tories too. Al Gretzky has an outside chance in London, but I have doubts. I’d love to see a few guys like Telegdi and Steckle go down in defeat, but I suspect they’ll likely hang on (as will Wappell, obviously).

2006 Predictions

Liberals: 48 seats (down 27)
Conservatives: 46 seats (up 22)
NDP: 12 seats (up 5)

Nationally

Conservatives: 132 seats
Liberals: 87 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 57 seats
NDP: 31 seats
1 Independent