Obviously, I don’t know the inner working of Stephen Harper’s mind (only the scientist who programmed him truly does), or of the Conservative Party of Canada for that matter. But, like analyzing daily poll results and Liberal leadership speculation, I think all bloggers are required to engage in a little bit of wild Cabinet speculation. So, after contacting my Conservative sources (ie. The comments section at Coyne’s site), here’s my predictions for the first Harper Cabinet.

Deputy Prime Minister: Monsieur Cannon
Finance: Flaherty
Justice: MacKay
Foreign Affairs: Monte
Industry: James Moore
Health: Tony Clement (pending recount)
Social Development: Ambrose
Defense: O’Connor
Intergovernmental Affairs: Verner
Immigration: Lynne Yelich
House Leader: Jay Hill
Heritage: Bev Oda
Transport: Stockwell Day
Fisheries: Hearn
Agriculture: Finley
Aboriginal Affairs: Prentice
Veterans Affairs: Greg Thompson
Treasury Board: John Baird

I think Cannon, Flaherty, MacKay and Solberg in those above positions are fairly common consensus picks (so they’re likely wrong). I’m also going to assume Lawrence Cannon gets another portfolio to go along with Deputy PM, but I’m not sure where Harper will want to use him. James Moore is a rising star, so I suspect he’ll get something bigger than Transport. After seeing Lapierre in Transport, I just felt Stockwell Day would be the perfect follow up act. With the fiscal imbalance as his big issue, Harper should likely take a Quebec Minister for intergovernmental affairs, so even though Rona is the name most often mentioned for that post, I’ll give it to Josee Verner. For a lot of the other spots, I tried to match the Cabmins with their critic portfolios, since this will cut down on the learning curve.

At this point, I realized how futile it is to match people up to potential portfolios (and do we really care what poor soul gets saddled with veterans affairs?), and I’m not sure how many Cabinet positions Harper will have. He likely will trim it down (not needing three Ministers of Democratic Reform), so I’m just going to pick 25 names total. Feel free to add a few secretary of states in there for kicks.

Blackburn and Bernier are locks from Quebec. Every site I’ve seen has those two, plus Verner and Cannon in Cabinet. It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see Harper pick a fifth Quebec Cabmin, but I’m not sure who that would be.

Peter Van Loan and Helena Guergis from Ontario will get probably something. That will give him a strong seven Cabinet Ministers from Ontario. Garth Murray is also a possibility, but I don’t think he cracks the top 25.

Fletcher and Toews likely get in, and one should likely get a descent portfolio. I think Clement is too obvious a choice for Health for Fletcher to stay there and as for Vic Toews…he’s likely not the best Justice Minister available, to put it mildly.

And I’m also going to assume Chuck Strahl gets in somewhere, because he’s a swell guy. Originally, I would have had him pegged for speaker, but I suspect Miliken will get the job again.

So those are my predictions. Harper needs to trim the Alberta voices in his Cabinet, so Rajotte, Kenney, Ablonczy and others get the shaft. Unfortunately, so do Myron Thompson and Rob Anders.