With yesterday’s membership cut-off, the eligible voters are now set for delegate selection meetings in September (except in Newfoundland, which only serves to illustrate the need for national membership rules in this party). The campaigns will now focus on searching for delegates, phoning existing lists, and on solidifying support.
It will be a few weeks before we get an idea of where the numbers truly sit but here are some early rumours about new member sign-ups I’m hearing:
-In Alberta, Gerard Kennedy led the way in new forms sold, with Ignatieff and Rae in second and third. Brison and Volpe also appear to have done well and Martha Hall Findlay might snatch up a few rural Albertan delegates.
-In Saskatchewan, Ignatieff had a surprisingly rough go, finishing out of the top 4, with similar numbers to Maurizio Bevilacqua. Bob Rae was first in new member sign-ups.
–Public Eye online has Kennedy and Rae neck and neck in BC for new sales but I’ve heard a huge range of opinions on how Ignatieff and Dion did in that province so we’ll have to wait and see.
-He may not have done as well as Jimmy K would lead people to believe, but Joe Volpe will have a surprisingly high total number of new members in Ontario (many of them over 14).
-The Globe is reporting that Joe Volpe leads in Quebec. Incroyable. Even an Ignatieff employee I know has conceded that Volpe will be a kingmaker in this race. The silver lining is that Volpe’s new members are grouped in a few ridings, he may have trouble bringing out the vote, and he likely doesn’t have great support among existing Liberals.
-The Globe story also has a few other breakdowns on numbers with Ignatieff faring well in Ontario and Quebec. They also said Rae did well in BC, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario but had trouble in Quebec and Alberta. I have some doubts about this since Rae was a respectable third in Alberta (about 1000 forms sold) but I’d heard he was having a tough time in Ontario (for obvious reasons).
-The Edmonton Sun talks about Kennedy’s success out West.
This is just the early buzz; I’m sure more “official rumours” will start coming out within the next few weeks.
UPDATE: I’m not sure how many people really care about this “inside baseball” stuff, but here are the numbers via a field worker on another campaign:
Alberta: Same top 3 as above. Brison 4th, Volpe & Bevilacqua tied for 5th. No one else on the radar.
Manitoba: 1. Dryden 2. Ignatieff 3. Bevilacqua
Quebec: 1. Volpe 2. Bob 3. Ignatieff 4. Dion